My Derby Pick

You can go with the chalk if you want. But I like to pick for value, and that's the way I'm approaching this year's Kentucky Derby. I like Gayego to win it all, even with his outside (19th) post position. The horse is a definite long shot; 15-1 on the morning line odds. But, again, I'm looking for value, and Gayego looks like he's ready to run a big race. The horse won the Arkansas Derby three weeks ago, succesfully making the switch from the synthetic track to the dirt. Before that, Gayego ran a strong second in the San Felipe Stakes out west. He also benefits from Hall of Fame Jockey Mike Smith, who steered Giacomo to an upset win in the Derby three years ago.
I know Gayego lacks the top-flight Derby pedigree, and I wish the horse fared better in the post position draw. But I'm looking for a big race from Gayego, and a bigger payoff after the race.
Good Luck!